Macro Outlook: Kenya and East Africa Inbounds

aerial view of mombasa port
August 29,2024

Kenya Inbounds

Volume of Inbound Shipments:

Kenya’s port of Mombasa is one of the busiest ports in East Africa, serving as a key gateway for imports and exports. Inbound shipments typically include consumer goods, industrial machinery, vehicles, and oil.

Estimated Inbound Shipments for June 2024:

  • Total Inbound Shipments: Approximately 190 vessels.
  • Delayed Shipments: Around 25 vessels experiencing delays due to security concerns.
  • Increased Costs: An estimated increase in shipping costs of about $55 million due to enhanced security measures and insurance premiums.
  • Average Delay: An average delay of 2 days for affected shipments.

Kenya’s Economic Landscape:

Kenya’s inbound remittance market is projected to grow steadily, with the market expected to reach approximately USD 5 billion by 2028. This growth highlights the importance of remittance flows in the country’s economy, potentially driving demand for imported goods and impacting logistics and shipment volumes into Kenya​.

Overall, inbound shipments to Kenya in 2024 are likely to be shaped by global economic trends, technological advancements, and shifting consumer demands, necessitating a flexible and responsive supply chain approach.

East Africa Inbounds

In June 2024, inbound shipments to East Africa showed a mixed picture, influenced by various factors in the global supply chain. Notably, East Africa has been dealing with logistical disruptions, including those caused by strikes, port congestion, and changing shipping routes.

graph showing inbound shipments to East Africa (January - June 2024)

Air Freight and Market Dynamics

Air cargo has shown growth in certain categories, with East Africa experiencing an increase in inbound shipments of special products.

Shipping Routes and Challenges:

The Canal’s constraints have pushed some shipping lines to shift their routes from the Panama Canal to the Suez Canal, affecting transit times and costs to East Africa.

Red Sea:

In June 2024, East Africa’s inbound shipments were significantly impacted by the Red Sea’s geopolitical and logistical dynamics. Increased piracy threats and geopolitical tensions, led to heightened security measures, rerouting of ships, and subsequent delays and higher shipping costs.

Red Sea Key Impacts:

    • Delays: Ships may face delays due to increased security checks and rerouting to avoid high-risk areas
    • Increased Costs: Higher insurance premiums, costs for security personnel, and fuel costs due to longer routes
    • Cargo Security: Enhanced security measures for cargo and crew safety, including armed guards on board and convoy systems

    Sources:

    -Kenya Ports Authority (KPA)

    -Trademark EA

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